USDA left its corn yield estimate unchanged at 178.4 bpa. The trade is looking for something around a bushel lower which would still be an all-time record yield. You can see 176.6 bpa the record yield so at 178.5 bpa we would have an all-time record large yield for corn.

The trade is estimating U.S. corn and soybeans yields will be down from the October crop report. Corn would still be an all-time record yield. Soybean would be just slightly below the all-time record. U.S. production is estimated to be down for both corn and soybeans. The soybean balance sheet has gotten very tight and we can’t afford any production losses or increases in demand.

U.S. yield for corn and beans both expected to be lower. The trade is estimating corn and soybean production will be up in the November crop report.

The IA yield was raised and the IL yield was lowered. Those two states somewhat offset each other. A lot of western belt and eastern belt unchanged from last month. Bottom line, USDA left its yield unchanged at 51.9 bpa.

This chart shows the monthly yield estimate at 51.9 bpa yield and as we mentioned before, with maturity of this year’s crop advanced to a point where we don’t expect major changes. Overall, crop conditions have been relatively stable so we wouldn’t be surprised to see crop conditions steady to maybe a little higher in tomorrow’s weekly report.

This map shows yield changes from last month. Where dryness was most significant from Aug to early Sept is where we saw yields decline in this months crop report. Yields in the fringes areas of drought had yields increase from last month. Bottom line, USDA’s yield was virtually unchanged down just 0.1 bpa from last month.

This year started out with a trendline yield up until July but good weather in July and early Aug resulted in USDA raising their yield. Then after the drought in Aug and early Sept, USDA brought its yield back to trendline and that is where USDA placed the yield in the Oct crop report. We expect yields in the Nov crop report to be up slightly or down slightly.

Corn yield came in at 178.4 bpa was down just 0.1 bpa from last month. Soybeans yield was left unchanged from last month. Corn production came in about 80 mb smaller than expected. Soybean production came in about 24 mb below trade expectations.