You can see USDA’s trendline yield that was projected all they way up until July at 49.9 bpa and then USDA raised it in August based on favorable early season growing weather but the August drought and derecho in August pulled USDA’s estimate down to 51.9 bpa in the September crop report. Similar to corn, most evidence suggests the current yield is fairly close to USDA’s target and no major changes are expected at least at this time.

The U.S. soybean yield was estimated by USDA in the September report at 51.9 bpa. That was down from the previous month. The long-term linear trend comes in at about 48.8 bpa. USDA’s weather adjusted trendline yield is at 49.9 bpa. It’s still a yield that is projected to be a little above trend.

USDA raised the yield in the August report based on mostly favorable early summer growing conditions but lowered it back to 1878.5 bpa in the September report. At this point, most indication are that USDA could leave its yield fairly close to unchanged in the Oct report. That will be released next week on Friday Oct 9^th.

In the September crop report USDA projected 178.5 bpa, right at the trendline yield. That is down significantly from their August report but sitting right at trendline.

In beans, IL, IN, IA, and MN are the top producing states.

This chart shows the area harvested, yield, and production for each state. We marked IL, IA, MN, and NE, the top 4 corn producers in the U.S and produce over a billion bushels or more each.

We see that MN is expecting a record yield of 52 bpa, that is up 2% from last month. We also see in the eastern portion of the U.S., mostly minor production states, increasing yields in those areas. While the central and plains states all see reductions in yield and again IA seeing some of the biggest reduction in yield, down 6.9 % from last month.