USDA’s acreage estimate for soybeans was 90.955 million acres, a normal harvest % of about 99.1% giving the harvested acres a 90.128.
We are using a trend line yield of 51.5 bushels per acre which would give us a crop of 4.642 billion bushels.
Our stocks estimate at 215 is below this year, even though our quarterly grain stock came in above the trade expectation, we believe that export demand and likely crush demand as well could be above what USDA is currently projecting. That will more than offset the larger stock that was projected yesterday giving us ending stocks this year at 215 and that would carry over into the beginning stock for next year.
Turning to our demand numbers, we believe that crush could be up next year and exports due to massive crop losses in South America.
Bottom line is that ending stocks at 197, stock use of 4.2% are tighter than this year and tighter than last year and in fact getting back towards the 2013-2014 timeframe when stocks were extremely tight.