Wheat Supply & Demand

Beginning with acreage at 47.351 released in yesterday’s perspective planning report, harvest % of 82.3% which may end up being high if we have more abandonment in the US western plains and a yield of 49.1.

That 49.1 per acre yield is below what we saw in 2019 and 2020 but above last year. Keep in mind last year we had dramatic losses due to drought in the Dakotas and Pacific Northwest.

We do believe that this yield is somewhat optimistic and its likely this number could come down, but for today we will use 49.1 with an idea that may slip lower.

We are projecting Carryin at 628, that’s below USDA 653 due to the smaller than expected quarterly grain stock.

Turning to demand numbers, we are going to use food demand up just fractionally next year, feed demand down a little bit due to tight stocks and high prices, but exports likely going to rebound.

Similar to what we saw in the previous 3 years prior to this year’s very disappointing export.

 Due to the problems in Russia and Ukraine and tight stocks globally we do anticipate that US exports could increase next year. That would bring ending stocks down to 585, tighter than this year and in fact the tightest we’ve seen going back to the 2013-2014 crop year.

What’s worth noting is that stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat are expected to be tighter than what they were the previous couple of years.