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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished higher today as Russia continues to attack areas within Ukraine and the US weather is less than ideal as we head towards the early portion of our planting season.
Grain Market News
Map
Last week there was a day where corn was limit down at least briefly because Russia said that they would reduce military activity in the North around the capital city of Kyiv and in Chernihiv.
We are hearing reports that Russia is with withdrawing troops out of the Kyiv area into southwestern Russia.
Unfortunately, it’s believed that these forces will then move down into the eat and south and fortify or increase military activity in those areas of Ukraine.
The bottom line is we do not believe that Russia is going to be pulling out of Ukraine, just a repositioning and the war is likely going to continue.
With that in mind old crop supplies from last year’s harvest are not availability to the world marketplace at this time, the spring crop that should be planted now are at risk, and the winter crop that are already planted from last Fall and going to be harvested in June/July are still yet to be determined what will happen.
This is a major grain producing area of the world and until there is signs that the war is reducing prices could very easily rally towards or into new highs.
Grain Market News
14-Day Observed Precipitation
Our panting season is beginning down in the southern US from central southern Arkansas and Mississippi south, they are already panting.
This week normally we would see from southern Kansas, Missouri, even southern Illinois would be starting to plant in those southern portions of the US corn and bean belt.
Then as we approach the middle portion of the month of April, we would start to see the central belt start to plant and then planting will begin in late April/May in the far northwestern belt.
The place to monitor now the southern Ohio valley down into the Delta, this is an area that would be normally planting right now. Over the last 2-weeks they have seen 2-4 inches of rain with some isolated higher totals.
So, planting very slow in the southern region where those farmers would like to be planting as the calendar turns to April.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast does not indicate any heavy rains but additional rains of a .5-1 inch possible in the southern portions of the corn belt and that continues in portions of the Delta as well.
We don’t see excessive rain, but it could stay muddy at least for the next week but remain dry in much of the western and central plains.
The bottom line for crop conditions and soil moisture is that the plains in the western belt remain dryer than desired and the eastern and southern portions remain wetter than desired.
Average High Temperatures for April 4th
Temperatures are about 70 degrees or better in the far south where planting has already begun.
Temperatures in the 60s from Kansas, Missouri, even southern Illinois which would be normal in the far southern portions of the belt. This is the area that would like to be planting right now if the soil conditions would allow.
Average high temperatures still in the 50s for much of Iowa and northern Illinois, even southern Minnesota and South Dakota, they’ll have to wait until mid to late April to get started with planting in the north.
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
You can se by the 1st of April we are just getting started, normally just 3-5% or 5-6% planted by April.
Planting is relatively slow into the third week and then we really start to see the planting pick up as we move in to the last 10 days of April and first 10 days of May. That is when we plant about half the US corn crop.
USDA typically starts reporting plant progress for corn once it gets to 3-5% complete, we will see if they report today on planting progress or wait until next week.
Winter Wheat Crop Conditions
Our winter wheat crop conditions were reported in late November at 44% good to excellent for winter wheat nationwide and then we had the winter dormancy
The USDA will report wheat conditions today nationwide and we should see something coming out around 40% for good to excellent wheat crop conditions.
That would be down from where we came into the Fall dormancy period and would be towards the lower end of crop conditions for this time of year.
We expect to see the lower crop conditions in the west states like Texas, Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas while conditions should be better in the east like Indiana, Missouri and Illinois.
March Corn Chart
Corn prices were higher today, we didn’t make a new contract high that was set last week on Thursday at 7.53, but it was a new high close. Our close at 7.39 on July wheat was the highest close for the July contract and that keeps the overall uptrend in place.
Overhead resistance currently coming in at 7.53, about 14 cents above today close.
Technical indicators are in the middle of a neutral range, so they have room to move higher if the corn market does push to new highs.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had a major pull back over the last week and this morning lows at 15.60 are a 1.81 below the highs that were posted following Russia invasion of Ukraine.
We mentioned on Friday that the charts didn’t look very good but the big drop in prices took technical indicators into the oversold range. That’s the most oversold we’ve been since harvest back in mid-October.
We view prices in soybeans down in this area as a better buy than a sell at this time.
We would not be surprised to see at a minimum price returning to where our moving averages come into play in the mid $16 level. We wouldn’t rule out prices trying to challenge some of the recent highs.
The bottom line for soybeans is todays higher close makes the chart look a little bit better, although we are in a downtrend still, but the technical indicators have hooked to the upside. A little bit of follow through tomorrow would turn the chart and technical indicators up.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat is also seeing a downtrend recently, in fact Kansas City wheat as of last week had fallen about $2.60 off the high posted at 12.59.
Even though wheat prices were higher today we closed at 10.39, that’s still $2.20 below the high.
Technical indicators are getting close to oversold, and todays higher prices did turn the technical indicators.
So, all it would take in wheat would just be a little bit of follow through tomorrow and the short term trend could turn up along with the technical indicators.
This is no place to be making wheat sales.
Questions or Comments
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