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Today’s Prices
Corn and soybean prices finished mostly higher as cool, wet weather continues to slow planting here in the United States.
Grain Market News
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Rainfall of 1.5 to 4 inches is possible in the northern plains including North Dakota, South Dakota, and northern Nebraska.
That would present additional challenges for North Dakota and northern South Dakota but many farmers in Nebraska would likely welcome the rain even if it did delay planting temporarily.
In the heart of the belt, we are looking at 1-2 inches of rain falling over the next 7 days on top of many areas in the eastern belt that are already experiencing saturated soil.
This is not a favorable forecast when it comes to US corn and bean planting pace.
There are increased rain opportunities for the central and western plains, anywhere from .25-1 inches of rainfall.
This is good news for the US hard red winter wheat crop, but as I mentioned this is not good news for the US corn and soybean planting.
Low Temperatures
Cold temperatures have also been delaying planting. Yesterday morning lows in the 20s over the northwestern half of the belt and 30s over basically the remainder of the belt.
Certainly not preferred for early planting of grain.
Temperature Outlook
The forecast if below normal temperatures for the northern half of the belt in both the 6-10 and the 8–14-day forecast.
Down in the southern portions of the US we could see above normal temperatures.
But rainfall is expected to be above normal in fact could be much above normal for the US corn and bean belt in the 6-10 with continued above normal precipitation in the 8-14 day.
This forecast is certainly not a favorable especially in the north where it is cold and wet.
Grain Market News
2-Week Brazil Rainfall Forecast
Unfortunately for the Brazil farmers in the suprema corn region very little to no rain expected in the first week or the second week for the suprema crop.
Maybe some rain in the far southwestern portion but the majority of Brazil’s suprema corn region is expected to remain dry for the next 2 weeks.
Canada Planting Intentions
Soybean Crush Margin
Soybean crush margin were estimated at $2.25 per bushel on the futures and nearly $3 per bushel was estimated on many of the cash markets for soybean crush.
This means that US soybean crushers are going to continue to buy all the beans they can and keep those plants running at maximum capacity given the very profitable crush levels.
Western IA Ethanol Plant Returns
A $1.10 per gallon margins which is nearly $3 per bushel for corn.
Those margins fell very quickly and actually became somewhat negative earlier this year.
Margins are again on the rebound and so production margins for the ethanol plant appear to positive at this time. That should also continue towards solid ethanol grind.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Production did increase from last week up to 963 thousand barrels per day, now that’s still below the level needed to reach USDAs current corn use estimate.
We would expect that we will continue to see ethanol production increase steadily as we go through May into June.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stocks dropped for the 4th week in a row down to 23.965 million barrels.
We are getting closer to what would be a normal level of stocks for this time of year, and we are well above last year’s stock level when demand was being reduced due to covid.
June Corn Chart
Corn prices continue to be in an uptrend, certainly we have had corrections along the way.
We had a minor setback last week of 34 cents, but the overall trend remains an uptrend and the fundamentals continue to be supportive.
Last week’s correction did turn our technical lower temporarily, but our rally back starting Monday has turned the technical back to the upside.
June Soybean Chart
Soybean prices were higher today, the next level of overhead resistance would be up in the 17.34-17.41 range if we can get some additional bullish news.
If we would get bearish news something down around the 16.50 level would be a reasonable target.
At least in the near term we believe anything within this range is fair game in an overall uptrend market.
June KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been consolidating now, we are not at the highs which were posted back around the 1st of march at 12.59.
Over the last 2 weeks we have been chopping back and forth. Overhead resistance is around $12 from the most recent highs with chart support down in the 11.40 range.
Questions or Comments
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