Closing Market Comments April 28, 2022

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as prices taking a breather following recent rallies and also first notice date tomorrow for May futures.

Grain Market News

2-Week Brazil Rainfall Forecast

43% of the suprema corn crop in grown in the state of Mato Grosso, if we add that to the two area south of that it equals 70% of the suprema corn crop grown in the central and northern portion of the Brazil region.

One area that’s in better shape is down in the south where they grow 18% of the suprema corn crop.

The second week shows very little rain in the forecast for central and northern Brazil including approximately 70% of the suprema corn growing region.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

In the US virtually the entire US corn and bean belt is expecting 1-3 inches of rain.

Now the rain will be welcomed in portions of the plains into Nebraska and southern South Dakota but for the rest of the US it’s going to create further delays.

Iowa and Illinois are expecting 2-3 inches of rain and heavy rain up in the northern plains where North Dakota could experience further flooding.

Temperature Outlook

Showing cool temperatures to the central and north in the 6-10 and the 8-14 day.

We may start to see some warming in the northwestern plains, western Nort Dakota and Montana but that’s not the heart of the belt.

When it comes to precipitation unfortunately heavy rain is expected in the central and southern US corn and bean belt in the 6-10 day and maybe we start to see improvements the Red River Valley.

In the 8-14 day we do see some improvements with a window opening, although it will be cool, we could see some dryer conditions.

Grain Market News

Russia’s War Against Ukraine

Russia has invaded and occupied areas in eastern and portions of southern Ukraine.

Russian forces that were in north and northeastern Ukraine have moved out to help reinforce Russia’s war against Ukraine in the east and south.

It seems very apparent that Russia’s goal is to take over the entire Black Sea coast region of Ukraine.

Russia has virtually devastated the city of Mariupol, a port on the Azoz Sea, which has access to the Black Sea as well.

We believe Russia will be moving westward to take control of the port at Odesa as well.

There are no signs of backing off and we believe that the war against Ukraine along the Black Sea will only intensify in the weeks and months to come.

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Corn export sales very good at 867 thousand tons, well over double of the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

Net week we are likely to see our export sales near a million metric tons on old crop corn.

It does appear that USDA export forecast for corn is likely too low and could be increased by anywhere from a 100-150 million bushels in the months to come.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sales also very good at 481 thousand tons, the level needed is -1 which means we already reached USDA total export sales for this year.

USDA is going to be forced to increase its export forecast further, we believe that by the time this marketing year ends our exports will be a 1100 million bushels maybe a 150 million bushels larger than the current forecast.

Export sales should be good again next week as USDA has been announcing additional US sales of soybeans.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat was very disappointing, but we typically don’t get much export sales business for the old crop position because there is only 4-5 weeks left in the marketing year,

Most of the sales going forward are going to be for the new crop.

Our export shipments are very close to the USDA total, so the deficit between what we are selling and what USDA is projecting just means that we will have less wheat left on the book at the end of the year that will be cancelled or rolled into the next marketing year.

We may fall a little short by 10-20 million bushels, but our export total is going to end up being at or slightly below USDA current totals.

June Corn Chart

Corn prices did post a new high today by just a half a cent, but today is still a new high and a new contract high for July corn.

The overall trend remains an uptrend, we will see choppy trade with days up and days down.

Overall, we see no indication that the overall longer trend uptrend is ending, and we do not believe we have yet seen the high.

June Soybean Chart

Soybean prices were a mixed day, prices have been consolidating this week with overhead resistance at 17.34-17.41 with chart support down in the 16.50 range.

The overall trend is pointed upward, and we believe that will continue.

June KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also consolidating over the last week, overall trend is still an uptrend, and we believe that will continue.

That doesn’t mean we won’t have setbacks from time to time but will not be surprised to see the market testing the highs from last week and possibly going higher.

In the very short term the market does look a little toppy, but the longer term trend is still an uptrend.

Questions or Comments

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