Closing Market Comments April 29, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain price finished mixed today as there is mixed news in the weather department and it’s the end of the month creating a little bit of profit taking.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

2-Week Brazil Rainfall Forecast

The Brazil forecast looks almost identical to what we have shown the last few days.

Right now, the forecast for the 1st week goes through May 5th and there is very little to no precipitation in the northern, central, or eastern portion of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt.

Any significant precipitation is in the far southwestern area.

The second week of the forecast is even dryer with virtually no rain in the northern, central, or eastern portions of Brazil’s safrinha corn region.

This is going to start causing concern regarding yield potential and production is likely to start slipping lower as we move into May.

Mato Grosso Precipitation

Mato grosso which is in the far northern region of Brazil’s safrinha corn area but also produces 43% of the safrinha corn crop has seen rainfall April-May 10th of just 1.75 inches. This is well below the average and some of the lowest precipitation totals in 12 years.

Not only is the forecast looking to be dry, but it has already been dry throughout April.

Mato Gross Monthly Rainfall

The rainy season runs November-February and that promotes some strong soybean corps and yields in favorable years.

The dry season, which is very consistent, allows precipitation to begin dropping sharply in April.

On average Moto Grosso would see something around 5 inches but this year it could be as low as 1.75 inches.

Motto Grosso averages 2 inches of rain in May and very little in June-August.

It looks that the rainy season may have ended 2-3 weeks early.

Crops that were planted earlier back in January have gone through the pollination phase, while crops planted in February-March are either in pollination or are about to go through pollination.

It is a very critical time for the Brazilian corn crop.

Grain Market News

U.S. Radar

Rain is increasing in the U.S. as expected, rain was expected to begin late Thursday which it did and then continue through the weekend.

Rains are expanding int he Dakotas and northern plains where they don’t want rain, this will further delay planting in North Dakota.

Rainfall is not excessive, but we’ve been seeing rains develop in Iowa, Missouri, and moving into Illinois.

The rain on our radar is expected to increase later tonight and tomorrow. Most areas of the US corn and bean belt are expecting rain over the next 7 days.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 7 days we’ve seen significant rain in the northern plains. Some of the rain in South Dakota is welcome but in North Dakota not welcome.

We are hearing about planting progress taking place in portions of Nebraska, Kansas, northwest Iowa, and southeast South Dakota but in the eastern belt things still are relatively slow and generally cool, wet conditions not allowing a lot of farmers to get planting done.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows 1-3 inches of rain for nearly the entire US corn and bean belt, if this forecast is correct, we are going to see planting fall further behind the average pace.

Temperature Outlook

Our longer-term forecast is a little bit cooler today with the 6-10 day showing below normal temperatures for almost the entire US corn and bean belt. Same thing is true in the 8-14 day, so unfortunately no warming trends.

Now temperatures will be warming seasonally but temperatures still look to be below normal through this forecast of May 12th.

In addition to cool temperatures most of the belt will see above normal precipitation through the 6-10 day with maybe some improvement in the eastern belt on the 8-14 day.

Some planting s going to take place our planting pace in the US is likely to remain well below average.

June Corn Chart

Corn prices posted a new high for the move up to 8.24 today, that keeps the uptrend intact but technical indicators are over bought.

Today’s steady close was somewhat disappointing closing 11 cents off the daily high.

If we don’t bounce back early next week and the technical indicators try to turn lower, we might start seeing a little of diversion on the chart.

That’s where prices make a new high and the technical make a lower high.

We are not bearish in the corn market, but we are certainly going to see more choppy trade.

June Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are also in an uptrend but over the last 2-3 months most of the soybean trade has been in a sideways range.

Last week prices challenged overhead and reached 17.34 on the July chart, this week prices have been a little bit quieter.

For the most part things are stuck in a range with the bulk of the volume stuck in between 16.25-17 range.

June KC Wheat Chart

Wheat took on some negative looks today as the chart turned lower and technical indicators pointed sharply lower as well.

Today’s prices broke through the uptrend line and that’s somewhat of a negative signal and now we have come down to the 40-day moving average.

Wheat prices need some bullish news early next week or we could see some additional downward pressure.

Long term we are not bearish wheat, but the negative chart picture could allow for a little more selling early next week.

Keep in mind we are in a weather market, so weather devolvement’s will certainly trump chart or technical signal.

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