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Today’s Prices

Grain prices were lower today, partly on profit taking and there is some anticipation that U.S. weather could improve providing better planting opportunities next week.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

We can see that Nebraska has gotten in many areas 1-3 inches of rain; one would be the second tier of green up to 3. Inches.

The moisture is very welcome in Nebraska even if it is slowing the planting pace.

Rain has not been exceptionally heavy, generally .5-1 inch in the central and eastern belt.

Portions of Minnesota into the northern plains have gotten some heavier rains from 1-3 inches. This is not good news for North Dakota.

14-Day Observed Precipitation   

Going over the last 2 weeks we can see 3-6 inches of rain in eastern half of North Dakota, again that’s where serious flooding is taking place, and generally 1-2 inches of rain in most of the central, eastern belt.

The combination of cooler than normal temperatures and widespread rains over the past 2 weeks has kept planting very slow.

NWS Active Alerts/Rivers in Flood Stage

A large area of flood warnings in not along the river but in a wide area of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.

We also see flood watches in portions of Missouri and Arkansas and there is more rain on the way through the central U.S. as we speak.

Also, you can see the rivers reported in flood stage, many areas in eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are in moderate to severe flood.

This is not only a problem for planting but also going to generate a larger amount of preventive planted acres this year.

7-day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows 1-3 inches of rain across most of the central U.S. including the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The rains you see in the northern plains is an event coming next weekend.

North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota are expecting relatively dry weather for the next 5 days but then more rain comes in over the weekend.

Although there will be some planting progress taking place, the pace of planting in the U.S. is going to remain well below normal and falling further below normal.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day shows normal to above normal temperatures and mostly above normal in the 8-14 day. That would be an improvement if we get the warmer temperatures.

Unfortunately, much of the western and northwestern belt is looking at above normal precipitation in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day.

Unfortunately, this current forecast does not indicate any major open windows for planting.

Grain Market News

Corn Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections came in a little above 66 million bushels and we needed 62 to reach USDA forecast. So, this was a very good week in the corn exports last week.

Soybean Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans came in around 22 million bushels, that’s not a huge number and it was a little disappointing, but it is still at the level needed.

As we mentioned for about the last 3 months, we expect exports to be at or above the level needed on a fairly consistent basis going forward.

Wheat Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat export inspections bounced back up to 14 million bushels but still below the level needed to reach USDA forecast.

It does appear that in the May crop report USDA may be forced to lower its export forecast for wheat.

Brazil Precipitation

A good portion of the heart of Brazil’s safrinha corn region has less than 25% of normal rainfall through April and projected through the first half of May.

Half or maybe a little bit more than half has seen less than half of normal rainfall.

Brazil Precipitation

If we highlight the safrinha corn crop area you can see how significantly dry it is.

The Brazilian safrinha corn dryness has not gotten much attention recently, but we do believe it could gain a lot more attention in the weeks to come.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices down sharply today, now the long-term trend is still an uptrend and the intermediate term trend, but we are having another correction.

As we mentioned, we’ve had a number of corrections in this market, we are going to have more corrections from time to time.

We believe todays correction to the downside is mostly just a correction with an overall up trending market.

The US weather for planting is far form ideal and thew Russia/Ukraine war is still ongoing restricting supplies from the Black Sea region.

We did close at 8.03, only 13 cents off the daily low.

 Current chart support would be at 7.80, last week’s low, overhead resistance at 8.24 which was Fridays high.  

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices today had a sharp down move down to chart support at 16.35.

If that level holds over the next couple days that may signal some bottoming action and then the market could start To recover within our range.

technical indicators also pointed downward but no sign of bottoming action.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices actually had broken through trend line support, we had a fairly sharp uptrend in place off of the February and March lows.

Today prices came down into the region of the 40-day moving average.

Certainly, the chart does look disappointing, and the technical indicators look disappointing.

There is no sign of bottoming action, but this is not a place to be selling wheat but a place for end users to put on some ownership or buying.

Questions or Comments

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