Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today with corn and soybeans lower as we approach harvest while wheat is higher on a higher international market.
Grain Market News
High Temperatures
US crop season is winding down with today being the last day of August, but weather is still important for the final filling stages for corn and beans.
Yesterday’s high temperatures shows mostly upper 70s low to mid 80s across the heart of the belt.
Heat continuing in the 90s into the plain states.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The 7-day forecast shows very little to no precipitation across the US corn and bean belt.
That won’t be a problem if you have adequate soil moisture, and the final filling should be going quite well.
Corn and bean acres that are experiencing short to very short soil moisture, another week of dry weather will prevent proper fill.
Temperature Outlook
Our 6-10- and 8–14-day temperatures show above normal temperatures for virtually the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.
Precipitation is below normal to almost nothing in the northern and western belt in the 6-10 day with a little bit better opportunity out in the 8-14 day.
Topsoil Moisture
Its clear to see the most severe moisture shortages are in the plains with Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma.
We also have dryness where nearly 50% of Iowa is short to very short, over 50% of Missouri, and even North Dakota is showing 40% short to very short.
As of Sunday, we were 40.6% short to very short and those are the acres that need rain to fill properly as we move through the final stages.
U.S. Topsoil Moisture
The 40.6 rounded to 41% short to very short is a little bit dryer than normal, normal would be 36.
We are slightly dryer than we were last year, we were improving last year into early September and this year we are dropping into the low to mid 40s right now.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Yield
This year’s trend line yield is up to nearly 181 bushels per acre, so USDA’s 175.4 is well below trend.
Keep in mind pro farmer projected a 160.1, that would be significantly below USDA’s current estimate.
U.S. Corn Yield- % Deviation
The last 4 years have been slightly below trend, last year’s 177 yield was 1.1% below trend and this years projected yield of 175.4 would be 3.1% below trend.
Drought in 1983, drought in 1988, and drought in 2012 are all easy to see. We can also see flood year sin 2012 and 2019 where yield was well below trend.
U.S. Soybean Yield
USDA’s 51.9 is slightly above the 51.5 long term trend.
Dryness over the past few years has corn yields being slightly below trend while bean yields have been able to come in slightly above trend.
U.S. Soybeans Yield- % Deviation
Soybean yield has been running just slightly above trend recently except for 2019 when we had a flood year.
Soybean and corn yield are becoming mor stable, we don’t see the massive yields way above trend, but we don’t see the massive yields below trend either.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices were lower, there is some topping action shown on the corn chart over the last couple of days with prices taking out the lows from both Monday and Tuesday.
That’s enough to at least hint at maybe the technical indicators turning from over bought levels as well.
We are not overly bearish, but we must respect the fact we could see a pull back to the lower end.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also hinting at a turn in the short-term chart, technical indicators are pointed downward as well.
Soybeans have been finding support both yesterday and today at the uptrend that’s been in place off the July lows.
If soybeans cannot hold this chart support, then 13.76 would be the next target with current overhead resistance at 14.84.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices continue to show evidence of a U-shaped bottom.
The fact that this week high at 9.21 took out the highs form the previous few week sat 8.97 was a good sign.
We are trading above all the moving averages, in fact yesterday was our first outside day above all of our major moving averages back to May/June.
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