Today’s Prices
Grain Markets sharply lower today as significant outside market pressure pushed prices lower throughout the day.
Grain Market News
Ukrainian Corn Exports
When Russia invaded Ukraine, their exports were shut off to nearly zero.
Gradually we started to see more rail shipments going into Europe through April-June, then they opened the shipping corridor in August.
It’s estimated that about 1.3 million metric tons will ship.
Ukrainian Corn Ending Stocks
USDA is projecting Ukraine’s stocks at 6.3 million metric tons of corn.
Ag resources projecting 5.5, but the point is that because they have not been able to ship at their normal pace because of Russia’s war, stocks are building in Ukraine.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks
You can see that stocks anticipated to be lower next year, not quite as low as they were two years ago but still at the lower end of the range.
If the corn yield is lowered to 172-173 range, we could see ending stocks down around 1.1 million metric tons. That could drop below the lowest level of the last 3 years.
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks
USDA projecting that stocks will increase to 245, that is still extremely tight.
Even a small change in U.S. production could have a big impact on ending stocks.
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks
USDA is projecting stocks at 610, that would be down for the 6th consecutive year and the lowest going back to 2014.
U.S. Grain Stocks
Combining them all we can see that the U.S. projection for ending stocks combined are lower than they were the previous 2 years.
It looks likely that we will enter our late winter and spring planting season with stocks extremely tight for the 3rd year in a row.
World Stocks
Global stocks of corn, beans, and wheat combined next yar are projected to be at or slightly below where they have been the previous 2 years.
When we look at exporting nations alone, some stocks specifically wheat could be the tightest we’ve seen in 15 years.
Global demand continues to increase, so stocks to use continue to decrease.
High Temperatures
We continue to see summer like temperatures in the central and eastern belt with temperature mostly in the low to mid 80s.
But 90s even upper 90s in the plain states causing additional crop stress.
We do believe that this week being mostly dry, warm, low humidity levels so far are going to result in lower crop condition ratings next Monday.
If we do see lower crop ratings the market will assume that crop production potential will be slipping a little bit versus higher crop ratings would typically tell us that yield potential is increasing.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Our 7-day precipitation shows a little bit of rain through the central U.S. mostly Friday and Saturday.
Outside of that mostly dry weather over the next 7 days.
Temperature Outlook
We continue to see a forecast calling for above normal temprtaure4s across the entire us corn and bean belt. But there are some changes in the longer-term outlook and that is more precipitation out near the middle of September.
The 6-10 day still shows dryer conditions for most of the belt but the 8-14 day now starting to hint at some better precipitation as we get out towards September 12-14th.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices are still in a long-term uptrend, we are still in an intermediate term uptrend, but the short-term trend is turning downward, and technical indicators have hooked to the downside.
Unless we get bullish news quickly, 6.50 last week’s low and 6.40 chart support, would be the next target from a chart perspective.
December Soybean Chart
Soybean prices still in a long-term uptrend, intermediate term trend I still up, but that’s being threatened right now with a breakout to the downside today.
Our short-term trend has turned downward along with the technical indicators.
The next level of chart support would be 13.76, that was the spike low from about 2 weeks ago.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices also down sharply, the chart has been showing some very solid signs of a U shape bottom.
This week’s highs at 9.21 took out the previous highs from 8.97 which was a good sign.
Today was disappointing though, the good news was the market is coming down to chart support where the 10-, 20-, and 40-day moving averages converge.
The short-term trend does look somewhat disappointing which was enough to turn the technical lower as well.
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