Closing Market Comments September 6, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today with corn and wheat finding support while soybeans pushed lower.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Monday September 5th mostly 70s in the central and eastern belt with a few low 80s and then 80s into the 90s across the plains.

If you are sitting out there in the western plains, crop stress continues to be an issue.

Current Conditions

Current conditions show virtually no rain in the US corn and bean belt with temperatures in the upper 70s low 80s.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

 There has been very little or no precipitation in the western belt and plains which will cause crop condition ratings to go lower.

In the eastern belt down into the Ohio valley they have seen good rain, conditions should be able to hold steady and maybe improve.

Declines in the western belt and plains will more than offset benefits in the eastern belt.

14-Day Precipitation % of Normal

Looking at the precipitation over the past 14 days shown as a percent of normal.

We can see that significant dryness could be definitely reducing some yield potential out in the northwestern belt, plains, and even portions of the central belt.

There are some pockets in central Iowa, southern Wisconsin, southeast Minnesota that have done well.

As well as portions of the eastern belt down in the Ohio valley doing well.

But quite a few dry pockets that we believe will push crop conditions lower in the report.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

This shows mostly dry weather in the western belt over the next 7 days although there could be light rains in the far northwestern areas.

Temperature Outlook

6–10-day temperatures show above normal in the west, normal in the east and above normal possibly well above normal in the 8-14 day for the heart of the US corn and bean belt.

Along with the mostly warmer temperatures is a dryer profile in the 6-10 day and maybe normalizing a little in the 8-14 day.

Grain Market News

August 2021 % of Normal

A few dry pockets, nothing exceptionally large in 2021. Much of the belt seen green, blue, and purple which is above normal precipitation during August.

August 2022 % of Normal

We have much larger dry pockets this year wit more severe dryness and again much more heat this year as well.

USDA Corn Yield Estimate

Last year 2021 USDA lowered the yield in August to 174.6 and then raised the yield by 1.7 bushels in the September crop report.

This year we would not be surprised to see USDA lower the yield by 2-3 bushels into the 172-174 range.

USDA Soybean Yield Estimate

Last year 2021 USDA lowered the yield in August but then raised it back in September by 6/10 of a bushel.

This year USDA raised the yield in August, we do believe they will hold it steady or drop just slightly in September.

December Corn Chart

Corn had a good day on the chart, our trend remains pointed upward off the lows established in July.

All our moving averages are all pointed upward, they are lined up and providing support, today’s higher close does keep the overall trend pointed upward.

Overhead resistance would be at 6.83.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices for the third day in a row testing chart support at the 40 day and uptrend line.

The short-term trend is pointed downward and technical indicators as well.

We need to get some bullish news to bounce this market or risk breaking chart support.

If we get bullish news overhead resistance leis just above the 14.50 level.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices did bounce today, it has been finding support where all the major moving averages converge.

It appears like this market could be in a U shape bottom still and would not be surprised to see $10 wheat this Fall.

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