Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with words from President Putin creating some bullish ideas but crude oil down sharply creating bearish ideas.

Grain Market News

Corn and Soybean Topsoil Moisture

USDA released its crop condition progress reports yesterday, one item in the progress report is topsoil and subsoil moisture.

This table shows hot soil moisture across the US corn and bean belt.

This table shows the percent of each state that is short or very short and then the percent of US acres is a weighted average.

Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, and Oklahoma are 70-86% short to very short.

It was very dry in areas like Indiana and Ohio back around July, but the soil moisture has improved.

In the central belt Iowa is on the edge, Missouri is about half short, North and South Dakota also having some moisture issues especially South Dakota.

Soil moisture is 41.5% short to very short overall.

U.S. Topsoil Moisture

When we compare that 41.5 which is rounded to 42% short to very short and compare it to previous years, you can see obviously the drought of 2012 was very dry in September but 42% short to very short is dryer than average.

Corn Crop Conditions

This week’s rating was unchanged at 54% good to excellent. In general traders were disappointed, most of the trade was expecting a slight decline.

Despite the steady ratings, we are still well below last year and well below the 20-year average.

Corn Change in G/E

This week 5 states seen conditions improve and 7 states saw conditions decline.

Bottom line is the US rating held steady at 54% good to excellent.

Soybean Crop Conditions

Soybeans also held steady at 57% good to excellent, that’s the same as last week and also the same as last year.

Soybeans Change in G/E

We see several states improve, several states decline, Iowa up 3 and Illinois up 1 but Nebraska down 2 and Minnesota down 2.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

We are in the final stages of the growing season.

Yesterday most of the corn and bean belt was in the upper 70s and lower 80s but 90s and 100s out in the central and western plains.

It’s this heat out in the plains that has been relentless most of the summer and likely to cause crops to be significantly below their trend line.

Current Conditions

Today’s conditions show more upper 70s low to mid 80s and of course these temperatures aren’t the highs for the day but temperatures at 1:00pm.

Ongoing heat in the plain states with no rain, there is rain in the forecast coming up for the weekend, but many farmers and their crops are going to have to endure dry weather for another week.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Rains are scheduled for Friday and Saturday in the northern belt and then Saturday and Sunday in the central belt.

These are not heavy rains, but producers would take anything they can get.

Keep in mind these rains are expected to fall around the middle of September and it’s getting awfully late to have a major impact.

Temperature Outlook

Our longer-term maps are not showing any sign of frost at this point, that’s good news to allow the growing season to continue.

Temperatures look cooler now in the eastern belt, warmer out in the plains, and as we move to the 8–14-day temperatures expected to be above normal.

Precipitation expected to be below normal in most of the belt in the 6-10 day and then more mixed in the 8-14 day.

Wetter to the west dryer to the southeast.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices posted a new high for the move today up to 6.88, that continued the overall uptrend that has been in place off the July lows at 5.61.

Today’s close was disappointing, we closed at 6.71, 16 cents off the daily high.

The chart still looks good, but we do want to monitor those technical indicators which are just now in the overbought range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had a nice rally early in the day, it looked like we were going to have somewhat of a upside reversal.

But we turned around and closed somewhat lower making a new low for the move, that kept the overall trend in soybeans a downtrend.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look pretty good as we made a new high for the move up to 9.34.

The significance of this is that last weeks high at 9.21 were equal to the early august highs and now we posted a new high.

We did pull back and closed at 9.01, so we continue to hint at signs of a U-shaped bottom.

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