Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today as there was no big stories to drive the markets significantly in either direction.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 7 days the central and western belt has received virtually no rain, harvest is racing ahead, and finishing up in many areas.
Northeast Indiana through Ohio and Michigan has ongoing rains.
The rain in the delta fell last week and has been dry since.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast shows anywhere from a half inch to 1.5 inches of rain right through the central part of the U.S. including the heart.
We do not anticipate this will cause problems for the crops, it will just slow harvest.
Any rain is welcome in the Mississippi river valley.
Temperature Outlook
Our 6–10-day forecast shows warmer conditions to the east, cooler in the far western plains and above normal precipitation for almost the entire belt.
The 8-14 day shows warm temperatures in most of the central U.S. with below normal rain to the south and about normal to the north.
Weekly Ethanol Production
Ethanol production surged up to 1.016 million barrels per day.
That’s still well below last year when we were nearly 1.1 million barrels per day.
But this was a very nice increase an getting close to USDA’s corn use estimate.
Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol
Stocks were about steady this week versus a week ago.
That’s good news when we had a huge increase in production, but stocks remained steady.
Stocks are still well above last year and certainly no shortage of fuel ethanol.
Ukrainian Corn Exports
Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, Ukraine’s exports in March-June were well below average.
That was due to Russia blockading all ports, but the state shipping corridor has allowed Ukraine exports to increase in August and September.
Normally at this time of year Ukrainian exports are very low because they have already shipped the bulk of their stock.
Grain Market News
Soil Moisture Change
Brazil’s primary growing region, improvements in the north and some drying out in the south where there is adequate moisture.
Argentina which has been suffering in drought is looking for improved moisture in all regions.
South America Precipitation Forecast
The forecast shows scattered rainfall in week 1 and in week 2 shows heavier rain in the south and some drying in the north.
Argentina is expecting better rains in both week 1 and 2, that would certainly help the drought conditions.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices have turned lower over the last week or so from a short-term chart perspective and that has turned the technical lower as well.
No signs of bottoming action, but two days in a row corn has found support right near the 20 ad 40 day moving averages.
If those don’t hold that could open another 15 cents of downside risks.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices have also turned lower over the last week, so the chart short term is pointed downward as well as the technical.
Today after being lower in the day as much as 14-16 cents, prices closed steady to slightly higher.
Chart support continues to be around 13.50, 22 cents below todays close.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices came right down to the 40-day moving average the last couple of days.
Prices today did try to move upwards but didn’t close very well.
The short-term trend is pointed downward, the technical pointed downward as well.
As the technical indicators get into the oversold level for the first time since July, this is not a time to be selling wheat.
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