Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished a little higher, not on any specific news but more bouncing back after a few days of losses.
Grain Market News
U.S. Drought Monitor
We are now beyond the growing season and harvest is wrapping up, but we will continue to monitor drought conditions through winter.
The most significant drought conditions are in the western belt and into the plain states.
We also have significant drought in the far west, but that’s not a grain producing region.
Class Change
In September and October, we have seen a tremendous increase in the overall drought conditions across most of the central U.S.
Some areas have seen the drought increase by 3 categories.
Drought does seem to be improving is down in Texas, isolated areas in Illinois, and the northeast.
Drought 2022 vs. 2021
The most significant differences are the drought that was ongoing last year was in the west, Pacific Northwest, and northern plains while most of the corn and bean belt was in good shape.
This year its very easy to see the significant increase in drought across the U.S. plains.
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Corn sales did increase, that’s good news but at 408 thousand tons that’s still well below last year and below half the needed level for USDA export forecast.
Soybean: Weekly Export Sales
Soybeans saw a tremendous bounce up to 2.336 million metric tons, that may be a little below last year, but it would be the second highest week in total over the last year.
84-85% of this is being sold to China.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat had a marketing year low at 163 thousand tons.
Not only a marketing year low but also well below last year and the level needed for the USDA export forecast.
Grain Market News
Brazil/Argentina Corn Production
The bulk of the corn in Brazil is grown in the northwestern areas, Mato Grosso produces nearly 1/3 of Brazil’s corn.
The southern portion of Brazil produce about 1.4 of Brazil’s corn.
2/3 to ¾ of Argentina’s corn is grown right in the central part.
Brazil/Argentina’s Soybean Production
Brazil’s corn and bean area are in similar regions with Mato Grosso being the largest area.
In Argentina, the heart of their bean belt sits right in the center of the country with Cordoba being the largest producer.
South America Precipitation Forecast
Brazil looks to be in good shape for the first week of the forecast and the second week as well.
Argentina in the first week still has some good rain that was badly needed, unfortunately the forecast goes dryer for the second week.
Mortgage Rates
6.94% is the rate now, which is more than double than the rate a year ago.
Interest rates are an item that could cause a slowing of the U.S. and global economy.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices bounced nicely today; we are still in an overall downtrend off the highs posted last week.
This does indicate the possibility of the market finding support.
It’s important this level hold over the next few days if not the market is looking at the 6.61 or 6.47 level for potential lows.
Todays bounce allowed the technical to level off but have not hooked up.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did work towards the lower end of the 2–3-month range.
Harvest lows, at least so far, posted at 13.40 two weeks ago.
Today’s close at 13.91, 40 cents above the harvest lows we’ve seen so far.
Today’s rally and stronger close also helped the technical turn upward as well.
Our overhead resistance is up around 14.14.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been trending lower over the last 2 weeks.
Technical indicators have been going down as well.
Technical indicators are the most oversold since back in July.
We need to hold off on any sales right now and see if we breakthrough overhead resistance.
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