Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, beans did bounce a little bit after yesterday, but corn and wheat saw significant losses.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

U.S. Prevented Plant Acres

Beginning with an assumption that the past 2 years that virtually all available acres in the U.S. got planted given the very profitable prices.

But one variable is prevented plant acres, and this past spring the northwestern belt and northern plains had extremely wet conditions.

Our prevented plant acres were up 4 million this past year due to a wet spring.

Looking at the balance sheet we will assume that prevented plant is back down to 1.3 million based on dry conditions.

U.S. Corn Yield

Trend line yield for corn next year will be at 183, 183 bushels per acre for a national average.

That may seem high but keep in mind that these years yield of 172.3 was way below average.

U.S. Soybean Yield

 Soybeans also had a below trend yield of 50.2, next years trend line yield is 52 bushels per acre.

Corn S&D

USDA is projecting ending stocks in corn next summer at 1.182 billion bushels.

If we have a yield of trend line at 183, that will give us production of 15.472 billion bushels.

Using demand figures at 14.175, our ending stocks would increase to 2.5 billion.

Soybean S&D

A small increase in acres at just a little over a half a million.

If we assume that demand is the same as this year ay 4.4 billion that would leave us with ending stocks of 356.

Wheat S&D

Wheat had a small increase in acres, trend line yield of 51 bushels per acre.

Argentina is having a very disappointing wheat year and we would not be surprised to see exports increase next year to a much more normal level around 900 million bushels.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Week 1 shows the dryer weather in Argentina, portions of Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

Today’s forecast has added rain for Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

This rain does not look heavy but anywhere from 15-35 millimeters.

December Corn Chart

Prices dropped sharply today due to a favorable forecast in Argentina and a lack of any bullish stories.

Corn took out the lows from 3 weeks ago at 6.53 and then additional chart selling pushed us to 6.45.

This has turned the technical downward as well.

The chart and technical signals certainly look bearish today.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices got hit hard, extremely hard yesterday pushing us down to initial chart support.

Today the markets were able to bounce a little bit, but the near-term chart has turned downwards which turned the technical downward.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down sharply again today, this market is in a consistent downtrend.

The market broke to new lows today and that triggered additional sales stops.

Technical indicators are near zero and no place to be making sales.

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