Closing Market Comments June 14, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished lower today as the outside market reversed and turned negative again.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

Corn progress is now at 97% complete as we are wrapping up the corn planting season.

Keep in mind in late April through mid-May we were behind average by about 2-2.5 weeks.

U.S. Soybean Planting Progress

Soybean progress is at 85% complete, that’s close to the 5-year average but a little slower than the long-term average.

Bottom line is that we have been catching up with the soybean planting given the favorable weather over the last 3-4 weeks.

U.S. Corn Crop Condition

We are siting at 72% good to excellent, that’s down 1% from last week, but it’s still a good rating for the middle of June.

U.S. Soybean Crop Condition

USDA reported the first official nationwide soybean conditions in yesterday’s report at 7% good to excellent, that’s above average and above last years so a good rating to begin the season.

U.S. Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Winter wheat crop conditions will be coming to an end as harvest is starting. Our harvest advanced from 5% as week ago to 10% complete now.

Harvest is just beginning in south central Kansas; the crop rating was up 1% in the good to excellent category and it is now 31%.

U.S. Spring Wheat Crop Rating

Our rating on Spring wheat is at 53% good to excellent, this is below average and likely due to the fact that we have gotten a very slow start to the planting season in the northern plains.

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Our 7-day forecast shows some rain for eastern Nebraska, Iowa, into southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.

This rain is primarily going to fall later today and tonight and then we will get into a dry spread with very little precipitation late this week and into early next week.

Forecast High Temperatures

Its hot today with a lot of mid and upper 90s and even some 100s in the belt today.

As we look ahead this is the forecast for Saturday with another wave of extreme heat with 100s from Texas all the way to the Canadian border and that heat will be moving eastward.

Temperature Outlook

Next week shows a lot of heat and it continues to be above normal into the 8–14-day forecast.

With the exception of the northern plains, it’s going to be below normal precipitation.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices after bottoming 2 weeks ago have rallied 46 cents up to yesterdays high.

Major chart support comes in at 6.94 with major overhead resistance at 7.78 the contract high and today’s market is fairly close to the middle of that range.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices tested overhead resistance at the contract highs late last week and now price shave pulled back about 74 cents off the highs posted a week ago.

The soybean market has come back down to the middle of the range that’s been in place going back to early February.

Since the highs last week, the short-term chart and the technical has turned downward, as of today the chart and technical picture is not bottoming yet.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices continue to find support at our long-term uptrend line, that’s good news for the bulls.

We have not been able to breakout, and we continue to have overhead resistance from our 40-day moving average which is encouraging news for the bears.

Bottom line is wheat prices have been stuck in a range from about 2 weeks waiting for fresh news.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 13, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed to mostly lower today as the outside market pressure pulled the grains lower despite a hot/dry forecast.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt has had some precipitation, most crops are in good shape, and crop ratings should be strong from corn this afternoon.

We should be close to last week’s corn rating with the initial soybean rating coming out later this afternoon.

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

The areas in tan or brown are the areas that would be the first to experience crop stress if we don’t start to see some better precipitation.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Over the next 7 days we have some precipitation moving into southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa, through Wisconsin, and Michigan.

That rain does extend into portions of Ohio but much of Illinois and Missouri could remain dry as well as the Delta and the southern and southwestern plains.

Soil Moisture Change

Almost the entire US corn and bean belt will see soil moisture decline over the next 7 days.

It’s a combination of moth heat and dryness that will start to deplete soil moisture.

Soil Moisture Anomaly

Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt including the heart of the belt is expecting significant soil moisture declines over the next few weeks.

Temperature Outlook

Above normal temperatures for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt over the next two weeks with less than normal moisture, especially in the south and southeast in the 6-10 day and that continues in the eastern belt and the Delta in the 8-14 day.

One area that may experience good conditions would be the northern plains where precipitation could remain somewhat close to normal.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks

Stocks are above what was projected last year, we had expected stocks to be declining as we move through the marketing year on good exports.

Exports have been somewhat disappointing, so USDA lowered exports by 50 million bushels.

U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks

Soybeans have been declining consistently over the last 5 months, U.S. stocks now projected at 206.

A year ago, at this time we were projected to be lower, but our ending stocks last year ended up at 256 due to rationing.

U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks

The crop year ending at the end of May; therefore, we see very little changes.

Next year’s stocks are projected a little above 600, this year ended around 655.

Corn Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections were disappointing at 47 million bushels, we need 61 million bushels to reach USDA export forecast.

We do think that the exports will improve and well see some good numbers over time.

Soybean Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections jumped nicely from last week up to 22 million bushels, that’s a little below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

We should see some very good exports at or above the current forecast with South America virtually sold out on their old crop supply.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices overnight rallied posting a new high for the move up to 7.40.

During the morning hours we then collapsed trading sharply lower and then prices rebounded closing about the middle of the daily range.

We broke through our down trend line and our 10-day moving average, the technical indicators look good.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down sharply today after posting highs last week at 16.89, very close to the contract highs at 16.91.

We’ve now seen a pullback and today’s correction comes right down to our 40-day moving average.

If that doesn’t hold, we could see prices down toward the $16 level.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices continue to have market unable to go to the upside, but we continue to find support at the uptrend that’s in place from January.

The chart is showing signs of some bottoming action, technical indicators also showing signs of bottoming action.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 9, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today as traders were cautious ahead of tomorrow’s USDA June crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

World Ending Stocks

South American 2022 Production

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Corn export sales were at 280 thousand tons, that is up from the previous two weeks, not by a lot, but very close to the level that is needed to reach USDA forecast.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports bounced nicely from last week to 430 thousand tons.

We have already reached the USDA export sales total, that’s why the level needed is negative.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Soil Moisture Change

Temperature Outlook

September Corn Chart

Corn prices traded on either side of unchanged, we did make a new high for the move up to 7.37 on the September corn chart.

With prices trending higher, technical indicators are also pointed higher.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also made a new high for the move, in fact today’s high at 16.89 per bushel was just 2 cents off the contract high from February.

The trend in the soybean market is up, we’ve reached some overhead resistance.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been consolidating now for 6-7 days in a row.

There is a little bit of something for the bulls and the bears.

The wheat market needs some fresh news to determine if we are going to break out to the upside or the downside.

Technical indicators are still extremely oversold, this is showing hints of trying to trend higher.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 8, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices continued to rally today, it wasn’t a big move, but a continued forecast looking at hotter, dryer conditions was the primary driver of prices.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production was down slightly from last week to 1.039 million barrels per day.

That’s slightly below the level needed and overall year to date ethanol production is up 7.8% from last year.

USDS is projecting that corn use will be up 6.8%, so we are still on track to hit the UDSA corn use estimate.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks of fuel ethanol did increase to 23.626 million barrels, and we currently have ethanol stocks up 18.4% from the year ago level.

Overall today’s weekly ethanol production report was considered somewhat disappointing or negative for corn prices given that ethanol production was down, and stocks of fuel ethanol were up.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

World Ending Stocks

South American 2022 Production

1-Day Observed Precipitation

We saw some additional showers over the past 24 hours.

Southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, much of eastern Nebraska, northeast Kansas, into northern Missouri, and southwest Iowa saw significant rains as well as some showers through the Delta region.

It continues to be dryer for the far northern plains.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

Almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt has seen adequate rainfall.

Any areas in green are areas that have seen less rain and are probably going to be looking for rain soon but not critical yet.

Areas in darker red have had 6-10 inches and even 10-15 inches in portions of eastern Kansas.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Additional rain is shown in much of the eastern belt as well as down into the Delta.

These rains will primarily fall over the next 4 days and then things will start to dry out.

Later in the weekend rains are expected in the northern plains, which can cause some issues.

Temperature Outlook

Topsoil Moisture

September Corn Chart

Corn prices made another new high for the move, we did pull backoff of the daily high, but it was still an outside day up.

The market is trying to break through overhead resistance.

 Chart and technical indicators both look good.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices rallied to new highs for this move, today’s high at 16.78 challenging the highs from last week at 16.79.

The chart and technical indicators do signal that this market may be interested in testing the contract highs at 16.91.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices continue to consolidate, the bears will brag that we’ve been unable to break out to the upside and still trading below our major moving averages and the bulls will cheer on the fact that we have not been able to break through and the market is finally bottoming action.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 6, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today as fresh attacks and bombing by Russia into Ukraine has reduced the markets optimism of any type of aa grain shipping corridor.

Grain Market News

Russian Control

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Corn exports were maybe a little bit disappointing at 56.48 million bushels.

We need 64 million bushels per week to reach USDA’s export forecast.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports reached a marketing year low of 12.875 million bushels. This is also below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

But the US sales that are open and on the books are record large.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat exports came in at 12.962 million bushels, that’s also somewhat of a disappointing number but in line with what we have seen over the past couple of months.

Grain Market News

Final Volume Requirements

Grain Market News

3-Day Observed Precipitation

30-Day Precipitation: % of Normal

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day and then the 8-14 day which goes through June 19th we cee a warmer pattern starting to develop in the plains and the southwestern belt.

That warmth pushes to the north and east and encompasses most of the corn and bean belt in the 8-14 day.

The fact that the warming temperature comes with a drying pattern for the southwestern belt in the 6-10 day and a much larger portion of the corn and bean belt in the 8-14 day certainly bares watching.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices had a very significant move, took out the consolidation area that we saw late in the day Wednesday through Friday.

That has the short-term chart turning upward and the technical hooked to the upside as well.

That tells us that the chart and technical are indicating that we could see this market move higher into a level of overhead resistance.  

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been consolidating, very choppy, but nonetheless consolidating in the upper half of their trading range over the last 2-3 weeks.

Today’s prices traded higher and lower during the course of the day.

We continue to have chart support where our moving averages are converging in the middle portion with overhead resistance in the 16.79-16.90 area.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat had a big move today, similar on the chart to corn.

We see the short-term chart turning higher enough to turn the technical higher from the extremely oversold level.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 3, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices pushed lower today as there is no threatening weather in the forecast for the bulk of the grain belt and there is still ongoing talk about a safe grain shipping corridor.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Combined Russian/Ukrainian Exports

This current year exports of 87mmt out of Russia and Ukraine, that’s down a little from last year due to the slower exports following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Next year USDA is anticipating that exports will be at 70mmt, but this would assume either the war ending soon, or a state shipping corridor could be opening on the Black Sea.

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Corn sales at a 186 thousand tons were somewhat disappointing and below the level needed to reach USDA forecast for the third time in the last 4 weeks.

We believe we will get some better export numbers.

Despite the disappointing sales over the last few weeks, the US is still on track to hit USDA export estimate.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean sales were at a 112 thousand tons, but keep in mind any positive sales are good news as we already surpassed USDA export forecast.

USDA is likely to increase exports and reduce ending stock in the June-August reports.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales are almost irrelevant in the old crop position as the new crop season began on June 1st.

Even though our sales fell short of the USDA sales total our shipments look like they are going to come close to what UADA is projecting.

Grain Market News

Ethanol Swaps

Ethanol swaps, which are where the cash market for ethanol is now determined, is trading around $2.77 per gallon.

Gasoline futures today are trading at $4.27 per gallon, that means that ethanol is trading at this time a $1.50 per gallon below the price of gasoline and that will continue to encourage strong ethanol use.

That’s good news for the ethanol industry as we move to the summer.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

The northern plains have been drying over the last 3-4 days, that extends into southern Canadian prairies, western and northwestern Minnesota, and northern South Dakota.

Some farmer s in North Dakota is getting a start again following last weekend’s rains while other farmers are still waiting for things to dry out more.

Keep in mind the final planting date for full crop insurance for corn for the bulk of North Dakota was May 25th and the final planting date for Spring wheat for full insurance coverage for the bulk of North Dakota was May 31st.

So, insurance dates have already passed by for corn and wheat.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows an additional window of opportunity for North Dakota to get crops planted and again that extends into the southern Canadian prairies and northwest Minnesota as well.

The plains could get some additional rains, we are looking at an inch and half to 2 inches over the next 7 days in much of Nebraska and Kansas. That rain would be welcome unless it would become excessive.

The eastern belt has plenty of soil moisture so rain below an inch would be fine.

Temperature Outlook

Below normal temperatures in early June mean that the temperature may be mostly in the 70s and I’m sure that many farmers would like to see mid or upper 80s if they have adequate soil moisture.

The precipitation shows some dryer weather moving into northern plains, that’s seen as favorable at least initially unless it lasts too long.

Not an ideal forecast but for the most part it’s not threatening.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices had a consolidation day for the second day in a row. Unfortunately corn prices did close a little lower.

The consolidation we’ve seen off Wednesdays low may be a sign of some bottoming action, but technical indicators are not turning yet.

They are oversold so we do not want to be selling corn here, but the market needs to see some upward momentum to make the chart look better.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down sharply early in the week, up sharply yesterday, and back down today.

Soybean prices are chopping back and forth in a big range in the upper half of the range.

Today’s lower close on beans was enough to turn technical to the downside.

At this point we have significant chart support at 6.12 and overhead resistance at 6.79.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat has consolidating since Wednesday morning but no significant sign of turning.

Technical indicators are extremely over sold therefore we do not want to make any sales at this time.

As of today, there is no sign of bottoming action at least not yet.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments June 1, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today, although corn and wheat were sharpy lower due to ongoing talk of the possibility of a safe grain shipping corridor from Ukraine.

Grain Market News

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

The US advanced planting to 86% complete, so we are getting closer to average based on the aggressive planting over the last 3 weeks.

Weekly Corn Planting Progress

The biggest week for planting would be the very end of April and the first of May.

This year our biggest planting week was the third week of May and then we planted aggressively two weeks ago and last week as well.

Soybean Planting Progress

Bean planting advanced to 68% complete, still behind average but now improving and well above the slow year of 2009.

Soybeans are being planted about a week and a half behind schedule across the U.S.

North Dakota Planting Progress

North Dakota is still the furthest behind, looking at the pace on corn this year North Dakota is currently 56% planted.

That is near record low as you can see from this chart.

North Dakota Planting Progress Chart

Corn is 56% planted compared to 83% on average, so North Dakota is 27% behind the average pace.

Soybean planting is 23% complete, so it is 47% behind the average pace.

Wheat is 59% complete, so it is 32% behind the average pace.  

U.S. Prevented Plant Acres

Last year we had a near record low prevent plant of 1.27 million acres, this year we believe we are at least at 4.27 million which is up 3 million from what was likely expected back in March.

If the weather dos does not start to cooperate this number could get up to 5-6 million.

U.S. Prevented Plant Acreage

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows for the most part .75-1.25 inches over most of belt with a few areas with more.

Overall, we view this forecast as quite favorable for areas with crops planted.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day shows below normal temperatures for almost the entire belt with much below normal possible in the northern plains.

The 8-14 day also showing below normal for almost the entire belt with the coolest temperatures in the northern plains.

Along with those cool temperatures looks like rainfall is above normal over the entire belt.

July Corn Chart

Corn for September prices are down sharply today.

We are now into a consolidation area that we see back in March/April, basically in the 6.60-6.95 range.

We are not bearish corn from these levels, but the charts do look disappointing.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices did fall sharply yesterday but they bounced back a little today.

At least for now finding some significant support in the middle of our range where the 20- and 40-day moving averages are coming into play.

Following yesterday’s sharp break and the fact that there was only a small rally today the technical indicators are pointed downward.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have broken out below chart support, so today was a very disappointing day from a chart perspective extending the downtrend and allowing the technical indicators to remain pointed downward as well.

The next level of significant chart support would be the bottom that we saw back in early May at 10.86.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments May 31, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished sharply lower across the board today as Ukraine continues to work on possibilities to allow their grain to work its way into the global market.

Grain Market News

Areas of Russian Control

This map shows the entire country of Ukraine, the areas in red are where Russia has moved in or occupied.

Russia completely leveled the entire port city of Mariupol, that’s to remove any resistance to their occupancy there.

Russia is also controlling the port city of Kherson, but Russia does not control the port city of Odesa.

Grain Market News

Corn Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections were considered somewhat negative at 54.7 million bushels were down from last week and below the level needed to reach USDA export forecast.

Soybean Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections at 13.8 were also down from last week and below the level needed to reach USDA forecast which made for a disappointing report for soybeans as well.

Wheat Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat inspections at 12.6, was up from last week but still well below the level needed.

Keep in mind today is the last day of the marketing year for wheat which ends on May 31st compared to corn and beans that end in August.

Grain Market News

3-Day Observed Precipitation

This shows the rain that has fallen over the last 3 days, for the most part Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Yellow is over an inch of rain and orange/red is about 3 inches, so we have 1-3 inches of rain from eastern South Dakota, eastern North Dakota, and much of western Minnesota.

That also extends into the southern Canadian prairies as well.

Down in the eastern belt, they had a dry weekend, and it was likely very beneficial weekend for planting with a lack of rain and warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and 90s.

U.S. Rivers in Flood Stage

From eastern South Dakota, eastern North Dakota, into western Minnesota still having many rivers in flood stage.

That will contribute to prevented plant acres.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Portions of eastern Kansas and Missouri may see too much, the other area that could see some more favorable weather is North Dakota where they may miss out on some of the heavier rains over the next 7 days.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day shows cooler temperatures and the 8–14-day cooler as well for the entire corn and bean belt.

Also, showing above normal precipitation for almost the entire corn and bean belt.

Crops that are in the ground should be doing okay, but in the north, this will cause additional problems for planting.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices were very disappointing from a chart perspective.

After trying to turn higher late last week the market reversed and traded and closed sharply lower making a new low for the move at 7.47 on the July chart.

That’s a very disappointing close and it may signal 7.44 as the next level of chart support.

Technical indicators after chopping back and forth for two weeks did turn lower again on todays sharp break to the downside.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also a disappointing day after making a new contract high at 17.49, closed sharply lower.

Our next level of significant chart support is around 16.60-16.65.

Technical indicators turned down early last week, then turned back up again, and now today has turned them back down.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices broke through some chart support and closed below the 40-day.

So, a very disappointing day, which keeps the downtrend intact on the wheat chart.

The next level of support would likely be around 11.49, 15 cents below where we closed today.

Questions or Comments