Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today with outside markets providing support as the debt ceiling was approved by the house and the weather looks threatening for the belt.

Grain Market News

April 2023 Rainfall

April was extremely dry in much of the corn and bean belt.

Drought conditions were extreme in portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

We also saw dryness developing in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri.

May 2023 Rainfall

In May we have seen significant pattern changes where moisture was much more plentiful in the western plains while dryness impacted the heart of the belt.

Keep in mind anything red or darker red are areas that saw less than 25% of normal through the month of May.

April-May 2023 Rainfall

Combine April and May together you can see the bulk of the belt has been much below normal for the last 60 days.

Anything in the darker tan is less than 50% of normal.

High Temperatures

In addition to the dryness temperatures continue to be around 90 degrees.

Virtually the entire belt was in the upper 80s to low 90s yesterday.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Much of the eastern belt down into the delta has received very little or no precipitation over the last week.

We did see some scattered rains in the western belt over the last week.

U.S. Radar

We are getting some scattered showers now, but humidity levels have increased with dew points into the 60s.

None of this is organized so if you are underneath one of those showers, you are very fortunate.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Looking ahead the forecast shows the eastern belt continuing to have little to no rain also down into the delta.

The western belt could see some better rains but below normal.

The best rains out in the southern and southwestern plains and up into Montana.

Outlook

The 6–10-day temperatures continue to be above normal temperatures for most of the belt and below normal precipitation.

The cooler temperatures and better rainfall look to be further to the south and west.

There could be some improvement in the 8–14-day forecast.

Soil Moisture

If the forecast is correct, we would see further soil moisture loss and moisture improvement out in the plains into the mountain state.  

Official 30-Day Forecast

The forecast for the month of June that came out from the NWS shows above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of the belt.

That’s a very similar pattern to what we have seen in the last few weeks.

If this is correct, we will certainly start to see crop stress.

Drought Outlook

May Corn Chart

Corn prices have rallied nicely with today’s high at 5.36 which matched the highs from late last week.

This does leave the chart pointed upward with technical indicators pointed up as well.

There is no sign of topping action following today’s rally.

As of today, the weather does still look threatening.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices after falling sharply Tuesday and Wednesday have rebounded.

Today’s high at 11.75 is 45 cents above yesterday morning’s low.

On the soybean chart it has not been enough to break through the sharp downtrend line.

Today’s high tested the 10-day moving average and the downtrend line.

If we would like to see this market move high toward overhead resistance at 12.47 would be to break through the 10-day moving average.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also rebounded off yesterday morning’s low at 7.63 with today’s high at 8.12.

At this time the chart and technical both look good.

We would not be surprised to see the next move pushing into the middle of our trading range.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today bouncing back from sharply lower prices earlier this morning.

Grain Market News

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

We can see the improvement on this chart from the lows in late April.

The crop is still rated relatively low, well below average.

The 34% good to excellent is a little above last year.

Corn Crop Conditions

Corn came in at 69% good to excellent.

That is slightly below last year’s rating at 73% but very close to the 20-year average.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Mostly upper 80s and low 90s across the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.

These temperatures are not extreme, but they are much warmer than average for this time of year.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

We have gotten a little bit of rain in southwestern Minnesota, west of the Des Moines area, and southwest of Kansas City.

Much of the Delta, eastern belt area, into central Iowa has seen no rain.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Some very nice rains in southwest Minnesota and somewhat in the west of Des Moines area.

Much of northern Missouri, eastern half of Iowa, much of Illinois, and Wisconsin has seen very little to no rain.  

Topsoil Moisture

Topsoil Moisture

U.S. Radar

There are a few showers in Missouri, Illinois, and northeast South Dakota. None of these are widespread.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows the eastern belt expecting little to no rain over the next week.

With temperatures near 90 expected through Monday we are going to see additional rapid loss of soil moisture.

Current conditions are much dryer than normal for this time of year.

Outlook

Our 6–10-day forecast shows the above normal temperature and below normal precipitation.

Again, for about 60% of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The best rains and cooler temperatures out in the far southwestern area, not for the heart of the belt

May Corn Chart

Corn prices were sharply lower this morning, but we did close in the upper half of the range.

We were still lower on the day, but we were able to bounce back nicely.

It’s going to be the weather that will determine if this market tries to retest the 5.37 or if we continue to push lower.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also made a new low this morning down to $11.30.

Beans did turn around and bounced, closing at 11.46 so we did close 16 cents off the daily low.

It was still a lower day with the chart still pointed downward.

Technical indicators are still oversold.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile, going up, down, up, down.

The fact that wheat was able to do a reversal and close higher today was enough to hook the technical.

Wheat closed at 7.91.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today as the trade is adding some risk premium based on a warm, dry forecast for next week.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the last week we have virtually seen no precipitation in the belt.

The best rains have been falling in the southwestern plains into Texas and Oklahoma.

In the heart of the belt much of Nebraska, almost all of Iowa, much of Illinois, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and most of South Dakota has seen no rain except for a few isolated areas.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar is virtually free of precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

There is some rain in portions of western Nebraska and down into Texas and Oklahoma.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Most of the U.S. belt is expecting little to no precipitation.

The light green is less than 1/10^th of an inch.

High Temperatures

In addition, we are going to see temperatures start to ramp up.

The highs next week on Tuesday are mostly in the mid to upper 80s in the heart of the belt.

Those temperatures are not extreme but with a lack of moisture and dirt still showing, which means soil moisture evaporation will be more rapid than it would be later in the summer.

Outlook

The 6-10 day forecast still shows above normal temperatures for most of the belt and the 8-14 day does show some moderation.

The precipitation pattern looks like what has been forecasted all week long.

April 2023 Precipitation

The dryness was considered almost ideal last week for getting planting, field work, spraying, fertilizer, and more done.

 This week has been mostly dry across the belt but now that planting is wrapped up farmers are looking for some rain.

The April precipitation across the entire belt was below normal.

30-Day Precipitation

We have seen a continuation of below normal precipitation for most of the belt.

To get crops planted early you do need to have dryer than normal conditions.

The dryer weather in April to May was considered favorable but now that we are approaching June concerns are increasing for soil moisture.

Soil Moisture

Grain Market News

May Corn Chart

Corn markets are in a steep uptrend off the lows posted last week.

Today’s high was 59 cents above last Thursdays low.

There is no sign of topping action yet but if this market can push towards our downtrend line, technical indicators could be overbought by next week.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices saw a nice rally today with an outside day up.

The fact that we had an outside day up and closed above yesterday’s high is a good signal from a short-term chart perspective, this also turned the technical up.

If we can get just a little bit of friendly news the next target would be 13.83.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile up and down.

We are well below last week’s highs and well above the lows from early May, in fact we are close to the middle of our long-term trading range.

The rain in the plains has certainly put a damper on the wheat market, but European wheat was up sharply today.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with uncertainty regarding the debt feeling, somewhat threatening weather, and a 3-day holiday approaching.

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

The monitor shows drought still in place in the plains although this drought area especially in the western and southwestern areas is likely going to be reduced due to the rains in the forecast.

Dryness is expanding in the central U.S. including the central portion of the belt.

Drought Monitor Class Change

This map shows this week’s monitor versus last week.

You can see the improvement in the southwestern plains, anything in green or blue is improving and anything in yellow or tan is where drought has increased.

Just in the last week drought has been increasing in the central U.S. including the central belt.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

This shows very little to no precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The best rains continue to fall in the southwestern plains, that forecast is expected to continue into next week.

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures were not extreme but certainly above normal with mid-80s to even low 90s across the heart of the belt.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar shows more rain in the southwestern plains and just a few isolated showers in portions of southwest Iowa.

Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt is dry.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows mostly dry weather, less than a 1/10 of an inch across the bulk of the belt.

Today the forecast did add a little bit of rainfall in the northwestern belt, its still below normal, but generally a 1/4 to 1/2 inch could fall in portions of eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota.

Outlook

The 6-10- and 8–14-day continue to indicate above normal temperatures for the majority of the belt.

Dryer in the eastern belt and Great Lakes in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day with above normal precipitation in the southwestern plains.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn exports did improve from last week, but they were still a net negative.

This is causing some concern and increasing the probability that USDA will have to lower its corn export forecast.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybeans were up from last week but still disappointing at 115 thousand tons.

This is below the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast but at this time we are on track if we don’t have consistently low reports.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat exports were disappointing but this time of year we typically do see some cancellations at the end of the marketing year.

May Corn Chart

Corn is down in the long term and the intermediate, but the short-term trend has turned up.

Today’s lower trade and lower close did hook the technical indicators which are dead center in the neutral range.

Corn closed at 5.91.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are in a downtrend, the market attempted to challenge or take out the downtrend line the last couple of days.

Today the markets turned around late and made new lows at 11.63 keeping the downtrend intact.

Technical indicators are very oversold, and the weather forecast does look threatening.

Soybeans closed at 13.24.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile with big moves up and down.

We would not be surprised to see whet approach or challenge the $9 level again.

Wheat closed today at 8.18

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, weather is still lightly supportive.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation – % of Normal

The majority of the belt has seen below normal precipitation.

Portions of southern southwest Minnesota are an area that had heavier rains as well as some isolated areas.

Soil Moisture

You can see that the western belt is well below normal with soil moisture and now the eastern belt is starting to develop below normal soil moisture.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Unfortunately, there is not much precipitation in the forecast.

From central Iowa, Missouri, through the Delta, into the eastern belt including all of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio is not expecting any rain over the next week.

Outlook

This shows above normal temperatures for almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt with cooler temperatures in the far southwestern plains.

This is not overly concerning but if this pattern would continue into June, then it would become a concern.

Soil Moisture

The dry forecast shows up in the National Weather service.

You can see virtually the entire belt is expecting moisture to decline.

The forecast is slightly threatening.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Weekly production does show a very small decline from last week down to 983 thousand barrels per day.

Our year-to-date ethanol production is down 2.6%, USDA is estimating down 1.5%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks dropped sharply down to 22.031 million barrels.

Not only is that down significantly from where we were at in late March, but we are also 7.1% below last year’s stock level.

Unleaded Gasoline

Ethanol Swaps

Ethanol Profit Margins

May Corn Chart

Corn made another new high, this chart looks good at this time.

We broke through the 10-day moving average and today we broke through the 20-day moving average.,

Technical indicators look good as well.

Weather will still be the primary driver for prices.

We are still looking at an area between 5.47-.5.37 as a potential target in the near term.

May Soybean Chart

The soybean chart does not look nearly as impressive as the corn chart.

But they still look to be building a base.

Soybeans are challenging overhead resistance, but we have not yet seen a clean breakout to the upside.

If the weather remains somewhat threatening, soybeans could see a bounce.

Overhead resistance at 12.47.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile with KC wheat averaging over a 30-cent daily trading range.

Yesterday’s prices moved up sharply and today’s prices moved down sharply.

Overall, the wheat market continues to be very choppy in the middle of the range that’s been in place back to last November.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today, good news for the biofuel industries as well as a somewhat concerning forecast allowed for the market to bounce from oversold.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the last 7 days most of the belt has seen very little precipitation.

The best precipitation was in the southern and southwestern plains, down in the Ohio valley, and northern portions of the delta.

Much of eastern Nebraska, southern Minnesota, Iowa, and much of Illinois was dry.

High Temperatures

The lack of rain was ideal for finishing up planting, but temperatures were also nearly ideal at mid-70s and mid 80s across the entire belt yesterday.  

The warm temperatures allow for good germination and early growth, especially given the fact that most areas have adequate moisture.

U.S. Radar

Today there is virtually no rain falling in the U.S. corn and bean belt.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows no precipitation in the central and eastern belts with only light precipitation in the far west.

The best rains look to fall in the western portion of the plains as we move forward.

Outlook

As we look out further, we maintain an above normal pattern for temperatures.

Again, in May that’s not a problem with 80-degree temperatures.  

The eastern belt remains in a dryer trend in the 6-10 days, but we start to see maybe some hints of improved moisture in the 8-14 day with normal moisture forecast in the heart of the belt.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn exports at 52.088 million bushels, which is slightly above the level needed.

We are still a little behind as our year to date is down 33.1% and USDA is expecting them to be down only 28.2%.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports were disappointing last week at just 5.697 million bushels.

That is below the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

We will see if improved water levels on the river will allow for better export inspections.

The good news for soybeans is, our year to date our exports are down 1.9% and USDA is projecting exports to be down 6.6%.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports had a good number at 14.98 million bushels, the best number since the month of February.

It was still below the level needed, but keep in mind unreported exports like food donations and food assistance programs are not always included.

It does appear we will be very close to reaching the USDA estimate.

Cattle on Feed

This chart shows 11.608 million head this year which makes us down 3.4% but one month ago we were down 4.4%.

So overall a good report from the feed industry.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices posted a low last week and it’s nice to see that we have not challenged that.

In fact, today’s chart was a higher close putting us right at overhead resistance.

If the corn market can break above that level, it may signal a bigger move into the 5.37-5.47 level.

That would be the next target but before we talk about that level, we do need to break above the overhead resistance very near where we closed today.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices made a new low by a penny overnight last night but then rallied closing sharply higher.

Soybeans are also right at overhead resistance and if we breakthrough that level then 12.47 is the next overhead chart point.

The strong close in beans was enough to turn the technical indicators higher today as well.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been in a sideways range for the last 6 months but also very volatile.

In early May we broke out to new lows, but we didn’t stay there and then last week we broke out to new highs.

Today’s close right back in the middle of the long-term range.

Recommendations

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets started the day out higher, but prices did drift lower throughout the day and finished lower at the end of the session.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

There are a couple of dry pockets where they have not received significant rainfall.

Overall, we have seen another week of overall good scattering of precipitation.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

The last 2 weeks have been ever better.

We do not have a lot of excessive rainfall, there was a little too much in areas of southern Minnesota, isolated areas in central Illinois or in the far western plains, but for the most part rainfall has been about 1-3 inches across the belt.

U.S. Drought Monitor

We still have significant drought in portions of the plains, and we do have drought expanding in Missouri and isolated areas in Iowa and Illinois.

Overall, the recent precipitation has been good news and reduced the drought area especially in the western belt and plains.

U.S. Drought Monitor- 4 Week Change

Portions of the northwestern belt have had beneficial rain and much of the plains.

Some areas in south central Nebraska that have missed out, much of Missouri and portions of central Illinois.

U.S. Radar

The radar shows a cold front passing through the eastern belt through Missouri.

Some light showers along that front but behind that is a cool, dry area.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows very little to no precipitation across much of Iowa, northern Missouri, and Illinois extending into adjacent areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana.

The heart of the belt looks dry over the next week.

Soil Moisture

You can see soil moisture change between now and May 27^th.

Most of the entire U.S. corn and bean belt will see moisture decline in the next week.

Outlook

The 6-10 and 8-14 days show above normal temperatures for virtually the entire belt.

The precipitation is following through with what we have seen recently with more rain in the plains and dryer in the eastern corn belt.

Grain Market News

May Corn Chart

Corn prices moved higher this morning but turned around closing lower which was disappointing.

One bright spot is we did not take out yesterday’s low at 5.47.

Corn is in a long-term downtrend as well as the intermediate and short term.

The 10-, 20-, and 40-day moving averages are all pointed down as well.

Our first area of major overhead resistance would be an area where we saw a spike low at 5.97 and a double top at $6.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also have an accelerated downtrend in the short term with new lows being posted today.

Technical indicators are near zero and the next chart point would be a low set last year in the month of July at 12.99.

Overhead resistance would be at 13.83, that’s nearly 80 cents from where we are at today.

If the market started to bounce that would be the first area of overhead resistance.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile, overall, the trend is sideways.

The price range is about $1.30 wide, which we have already seen the wheat market fall nearly a $1 in the last 3 trading sessions.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed to mostly a little bit lower today with disappointing export sales.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn export sales shows negative sales of -339 thousand tons that includes the Chinese cancellation.

This is the second time in the last 3 weeks that there has been a net cancellation.

The recent cancellations by China could have the USDA lowering the export forecast further in the June crop report.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports are typically small at this time of the year with today having sales near zero at just 17 thousand tons.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Old crop sales typically can be zero or even negative as we wrap up the marketing year for wheat.

Today was a negative 42 thousand tons but the new crop was 336.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois are mixed with some areas above and some below.

We do have some dry areas scattered throughout the belt, areas with tan color are less than half of normal.

South Dakota and portions of northern Ohio and southern Michigan are seeing some dryness.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

There was excessive rain that fell in southern Minnesota late last week and over the weekend.  

U.S. Rivers in Flood Stage

From southern Minnesota through Iowa and down to St Louis where we had major flooding on the Mississippi river, that water has now receded, and just minor flooding remains.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar shows mostly dry conditions across the heart of the belt.

We have a few areas with lighter rains in far northeastern North Dakota, showers in Minnesota, down in the southeast U.S., and out in the western plains.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows not much rain in the forecast, for the most part less than a quarter of an inch is expected across the belt.

Outlook

The forecast is monthly non-threatening with above normal temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 days.

But in May above normal is not a bad thing.

Precipitation is wetter to the west and dryer to the east in the 6-10 and 8-14.  

NWS

May Corn Chart

Corn prices have been in a free fall the last 3.5 days.

Today’s low at 5.47 is a new low for the move.

With that in mind there is no sign of bottoming action, but if we look at the pattern that’s been developing it’s a sharp downtrend.

The market could bounce into the $6 range on a correction.

If the market was able to go toward the $6 range that would be nearly a 50-cent rally.

Yet the market would still be in a longer-term downtrend.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are also in a downtrend.

That downtrend has been accelerating recently with today’s low at 13.23 on the nearby July chart.

Therefore, there is still no sign of bottoming action at this time.

Even if you were a bear you would have to respect the fact that this market could easily bounce into overhead resistance at the 13.83 level.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat had a sideways range in place for an extended period of time.

In early May we broke out to the downside but that didn’t hold.

Recently we broke out to the upside which has not held either.

The bulk of our trading has been in a sideways range over the past 5-6 months.

The sharply lower prices of the last couple of days have turned our technical indicators lower.

Questions or Comments