Closing Market Comments March 8, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed but mostly lower today s USDA did not provide any big surprises in the March crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

Corn stock sat 1342 came in above the average trade guess and up from last month.

Soybeans at 210 came in below the average trade guess and down 15 million from last month.

Wheat at 568 were unchanged from last month and a little smaller than what the trade was expecting.

World Ending Stocks

Corn at 296.5 was above the average trade guess and above last month.

Soybean at 100mmt almost right on the average trade guess but down form last month.

Wheat came in at 267.2mmt which was below the average trade guess and down from last month.

South American Production 2023

Brazilian corn and soybeans were left unchanged.

Argentina was looking for USDA to lower corn and soybean production. They did and even more than expected.

Argentina corn crop at 40mmt, well below the guess and down 7mmt from last month.

Argentina soybeans at 33mmt, over 3 million below the average trade guess and down 8mmt from last month.

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

10-Day Precipitation Forecast

We are monitoring the weather for the wrapping up of the South American growing season.

Argentina looks mostly dry over the next 10 days, that’s not good for the late finishing crop.

The rest of Brazil has normal weather for central Brazil while northern Brazil could see heavy rains.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Painting has begun in the U.S.; Texas has reported corn planting 20% complete.

As we move to the middle and late part of March the planting will push into the delta, earl April into the southern Delta, mid-April the central belt, and then late April into the northwestern belt and northern plains.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices down today on larger than expected stocks, prices now testing 6.22.

We mentioned yesterday that overhead was at 6.48 and chart support at 6.22.

We are very close to the lows posted a week ago.

We can’t rule out a little more downside in corn, but overall prices are close to chart support and technical back into the oversold area.

This is no place to be making sales.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans were higher when the crop report came out, but lower corn and wheat did pull soybeans back off the daily high.

Beans did find support in the middle of the trading range where all the moving averages converge.

Soybeans did get some friendly fundamental news with stocks falling by 15 million bushels.

Soybeans are trying to determine if they will go up independently or follow corn a little bit lower.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat made new lows today with a very choppy day.

We finished lower btu wheat prices did rally back in the KC wheat market closing at $8 after hitting a low of 7.89 this morning.

The rally back to the $8 level is somewhat positive with prices at the lower end of the range and technical near zero.

We believe there is more upside potential than downside risk at this time and would not be making any sales in wheat.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 7, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly lower today as the outside markets provided a big negative influence in today’s trade.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks 2022-23

The trade expects corn at 1.299 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels from last month but below last year.

Soybeans at 219 million bushels, down 6 million from last month and down significantly from last year.

Wheat is at 576 million bushels, up 8 million bushels from last month and down sharply from last year.

South American 2023 Production

The trade expects Brazilian corn production to be unchanged at 125mmt.

Expected to leave soybean production unchanged at 153 as well.

Due to severe drought the trade is anticipating that Argentina corn and bean crop will be lowered.

The trade expects USDA to come in with Argentina corn crop at 43.2mmt versus 47 last month.

Argentina soybean crop expected to come in at 36.3 versus 41mmt last month.

World Ending Stocks 2022-23

Looking for corn at 293.7 down from last month due to crop losses.

Soybeans at 100.1 also down from last month due to crop losses.

Wheat stocks expected to be up just fractional from last month’s report.

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows 1-3 inches of rain with isolated 4+ in the Delta region.

Its still early but the Delta will begin planting mid-March so will want to start seeing dryer weather for planting conditions.

In the northern belt it’s all about snow.

Snow of 5-8 inches and in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa 10-12 inches of snow is possible.

10-Day Snowfall Forecast

Anything in the mid purple is a foot or more of snowfall.

So, there is potential for some big snows in the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa into Wisconsin, and possibly based on this map even northwest Illinois.

South America Vegetation Health

On the left side is the index change from last week.

If we highlight Argentina’s growing area, we can see more brown areas than any other color, which means the crop condition has declined over the last week.

On the right side is the vegetation health from last year. You can see that Argentina has major problems due to drought extending into Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil as well.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices consolidating after bouncing off the lows last week.

The corn market has been consolidating for about a week now waiting for fresh news.

Technical indicators have also leveled off very close to the oversold level.

If we get negative news a test of the recent lows at 6.22 cannot be ruled out and friendly news the initial objective would be 6.48.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean price shad a corrective day to the downside.

Keep in mind beans rallied 61 cents in about a weeks’ time so a corrective day to the downside shouldn’t be unexpected.

Prices came back down to the area where all the major moving averages are converging in the middle of the sideways range.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are going into the report with prices at the lowest price we’ve seen in an extended period.

Chart at the lower end of the range and technical near zero so this is not a place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments 3-3-2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, corn and soybean finding support bouncing back from the early week losses.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Corn Production

Soybean Production

S.A. High Temperatures

The drought in Argentina is still ongoing and crops are late due to late planting.

Additional heat with temperatures in the 90s to low 100s yesterday.

Additional crop losses are still possible in Argentina while Brazil continues to see favorable weather.

Grain Market News

24-Hour Observed Precipitation            

Over the last 24 hours down into the central Mississippi valley, northern Delta region, and southern Ohio valley there has been 1-3 inches of rain with 2-4 inches in some areas.

Rivers in Flood Stage

Many rivers in the eastern belt, Ohio valley, and Mississippi River valley in flood stage.

U.S. Radar

We still have a lot of steady or heavy rain across the eastern belt into the Ohio valley.

At this point the rains are starting to become unwelcome.

Grain Market News

March Corn Chart

Corn prices made a spike low on Wednesday at 6.22 and then had a reversal on Wednesday.

There was follow through yesterday and today with todays high at 6.42 a new high for the move.

The rally off the low does have the chart and technical looking much better.

Overhead resistance at the 6.48 range.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also reversing to the upside following the lows earlier this week.

Technical indicators looking much better.

Soybeans have already achieved initial overhead resistance.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices not exploding to the upside but showing signs of some bottoming action.

Wheat closing at 8.16.

Even though the market isn’t exploding to the upside, this is no place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments’ February 27, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower again today as chart and technical signals look negative.

Grain Market News


This shows south America precipitation forecast over the next 8 days.

Argentina is expecting mostly dry weather which isn’t good news for the late developing crop.

Brazil is looking at mostly below normal precipitation, which is good news to allow harvest to advance and planting to advance as well.

Temperature Anomaly

Brazil looking at mixed temperatures, some a little below and some a little above.

Argentina expecting well above normal temperatures to go along with the dryer than normal conditions.

24-Hour Observed Precipitation

Rains and thunderstorms developed in the plain states late yesterday crossing into the central plains last night and into the western belt overnight.

Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas certainly welcoming any precipitation they can get which could help to continue to reduce the area covered by drought.

U.S. Radar

That weather system now in the eastern belt providing rain and snow.

The Eastern belt should have plenty of moisture as we head toward the planting season.

90-Day Precipitation % of Normal

The darker blue is double or twice the normal amount.

We have seen 2-3 even 3-4 times the normal amount of precipitation in the last 90 days in the central and northern plains.

Its good news that the moisture will fall now versus all falling in April or early May when farmers are trying to plant.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

This shows another system of rain 2-3 or 3-5 inches in the eastern belt including the Ohio valley and delta.

The 6-10- and 8-14-day forecast are calling for above normal precipitation in the plains and the western corn belt.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

May Corn Chart

Corn traded a narrow range through January and February but broke out to the downside.

Prices are still within the longer term range from August.

Current prices are approaching the lows set back in December, therefore this is no place to be making sales in corn.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans have moved down to chart support at 15.08 on the May prices.

It will be interesting to see if soybeans can hold this chart support.

14.75 would be the next target from a chart perspective if we break through the current chart support.

If we bounce, the previous high in the 15.40-15.50 would be the upside target.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices broke out the downside testing long term support on the downside and technical indicators are oversold.

There are no signs that we have found a bottom yet, but it is no place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments February 24, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower to sharply lower today as the charts and technical indicators looking much more negative following the recent break.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn sales came in at 823 thousand tons, slightly above the level needed.

We are confident that sales will be disappointing mid-way through the marketing year so we need good sales now.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean sales good at 545 thousand tons, that’s well below last year when we had very good sales into the February-April timeframe.

We are still well over double the level needed of 190 tons weekly.  

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales had a nice improvement over the last 3 weeks up to 339 thousand tons and a little bit above the needed forecast.

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

Next week we will hit March and that will begin the planting season in the deep south and work northward as we start to plant in the heart of the belt in April.

The monitor shows the eastern corn belt drought has been removed.

Arkansas and Missouri have also been basically eliminated from drought conditions.

Drought still remains in the plains and the far northwestern belt but the drought conditions continue to be eased in the northwestern belt.

Drought Monitor Class Change

You can see the northwestern belt continues to see improvement.

Anything in green or blue is where drought is improving.

We also see that the recent rain and snow has chipped into drought conditions in the far eastern plains and portions of the far west, central area.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Additional reduction of drought could take place in southern Minnesota and Iowa if the 7-day forecast is correct and in the eastern plains.

Unfortunately, things look dry in the far western plains.

Snow Depth

Anywhere from 15-20 inches plus across eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota has significantly added to the snow depth there.

There is a little bit of snow cover in northeastern Colorado but most of Kansas, southern Nebraska, and much of eastern Colorado does not have snow cover.

Yesterday’s Low Temperatures

Yesterday’s low temperatures below zero for much of eastern Colorado, northwest Kansas, and southern Nebraska.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices yesterday came down to the bottom of the trading range that’s been in place since January.

Today prices broke through and as the market broke the 6.61 level, layer after layer of sales stops was triggered.

Today’s low at 6.49, now very close to the multiple lows we saw in early January.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices pulled back today as well.

Earlier this week we were at the upper end of the range where we could make sales.

Today’s pull back allowed prices to come down to the chart support area.

If soybeans break through chart support, then we might start looking at 14.78-14.65 as a potential target.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look a lot like corn where we had a sideways range in place and broke through support allowing sales stops to be triggered pushing wheat lower.

We closed at 8.41, 10 cents above the 8.31 lows posted earlier today.

This is no place to be making sales in wheat and technical indicators are getting close to the oversold level.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments February 23, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets are sharply lower as the USDA outlook forum did not produce any bullish news.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn S&D

U.S. Soybean S&D

U.S. Wheat S&D

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Today’s weekly ethanol production number at 1.029 million barrels per day which is slightly above the level needed for USDAs current estimate.

Our year to date we can see ethanol production is down 3.4% from last year, USDA is estimating that corn use for ethanol will be down 1.4%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Weekly stocks have increased slightly to 25.59 million barrels.

That’s slightly above last year and a record large level for this year.

Ethanol Swaps

One concern is that ethanol swaps traded in Chicago about $2.18 per gallon. They’ve been there for the last couple of months, and this is not good for ethanol margins.

Western IA Ethanol Plant Returns

This chart shows that ethanol plant margins in Iowa are down sharply recently at some of the lowest levels we have seen in about 2 years.

This is not good news; we would like to see the profitability for the ethanol plant increasing in the weeks or months to come.

Brazilian February Soybean Exports

This is a chart that shows Brazil’s soybean exports in February and at this point based on ship line its estimated that Brazil’s exports of soybeans could be record large.

March Corn Chart

Corn had a sharp break putting prices at the bottom end of our upward trending channel.

If this area where corn is trading right now does not hold then we cannot rule out a move toward the 6.48 level.

It is worth noting that for the moment we are sitting right on chart support.  

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices down today but they are still within their overall up trending channel.

Chart support come sin around 15.25 on the March chart, if that doesn’t hold a spike low from February at 15.05 is the next support.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices broke below their trendline yesterday and now testing support at the 20- and 40-day moving averages.

The fact we broke through the trend line is not a positive note from a chart or technical perspective.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments February 21, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today but corn and beans were higher as Argentina did experience some frost over the weekend.

Grain Market News

Brazil Soybean Harvest

This chart shows the soybean harvest progress in Brazil.

The black line is the average which is 22-23% harvested and we are slightly below that right now and well below last year.

Brazil 1st Corn Harvest

The first crop of corn is slightly behind the harvest and well behind last year.

Overall we are not overly concerned unless the weather would get extremely wet for a prolonged period.

Brazil Safrinha Corn Planting

Safrinha corn plant had the vast majority planted after the soybean harvest.

Average progress would be about 34% complete and we are at about 28%, so a little behind average.

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day forecast is calling for significant precipitation west of the Mississippi river and western corn belt.

Even portions of the eastern plains as well and almost all of South Dakota.

U.S. Drought Monitor

All of southern Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas will get significant precipitation as well as the western plains and South Dakota.

We expect eth U.S. area in the corn and bean belt in drought will continue to shrink.

Temperature Outlook

The heart of the belt is expecting somewhat close to average temperatures and average to above average precipitation in March through May.

June through August is looking at average to slightly above average temperatures and precipitation.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn exports did improve slightly from last week to 24 million bushels but it’s still very disappointing and less than half of what’s needed on a weekly basis.

We typically see exports ramping up as we move through February into March-May timeframe.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections did decline for the third week in a row but still very good at 57.5 million bushels.

That’s over 3 times the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports somewhat disappointing at 13.7 million bushels, the lowest over the past 4 weeks and below the level needed for the USDA forecast.

The good news is our year-to-date exports for wheat are down 2.8% which is very close to the USDA target of 3.1%.

March Corn Chart

Corn prices have been stuck in a sideways range going back to the month of August.

Recently the market has developed a very narrow sideways range of about 25 cents.

Today’s closing was close to the middle of that range as corn prices continue to chop back and forth.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also bounced, in fact they gapped higher., but stuck in a sideways range from the first of the year.

Soybeans closed at 15.49.

Today’s rally did push prices back up to the upper end of that range.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down a little bit today but wheat does remain in a very gradual uptrend.

Wheat closed at 9.04.

Today’s pull back did not violate that uptrend on the chart so therefore the up-trending line combined with all the moving averages is still providing support.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments February 17, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished relatively quiet and a little bit higher today.  

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Canadian Canola

This market has been stuck in a sideways range back to July.

European Rapeseed

This market has also been very quiet, in fact over the last 3-4 months in a very narrow sideways range.

Malaysian Palm Oil

This market has been stuck in a sideways range back to July and that range has been even more narrow over the last 4-5 months.

Paris Milling Wheat

The milling market has also been choppy.

Crude Oil

Crude oil was in a downtrend through most of the Fall but since November we’ve been in a choppy back and forth range.

Prices have been up and down within that range but no clear direction.

Unleaded Gasoline

Back to November we have seen the unleaded gasoline market move up and down but for the most part stuck in a sideways range.

March Ethanol Swaps

Ethanol swaps have been chopping back and forth in a narrow range with no clear trend up or down.

Natural Gas

This market has been in a downtrend, an accelerated downtrend over the last 2 months.

In fact, today we made a new low in natural gas.

The good news is it is allowing fertilizer prices to fall, if natural gas remains at these low levels fertilizer prices could fall further.

Grain Market News

Argentina: 30-Day Observed Precipitation

Argentina’s growing area in blue has 3-5 inches across almost the entire growing region over the past 30 days.

This is allowing crops to stabilize even though there is some permanent losses.

Portions of Paraguay, southern Brazil, and Uruguay have also seen some much-improved rainfall.

March Corn Chart

Corn hasn’t had anything happen today, still in a sideways range back to August.

We do have a very gradual uptrend in place from the late harvest lows.

Over the last month the chart has actually started a narrow sideways, choppy range.

Corn has overhead resistance at 6.88 and chart support around the 6.60 level.

March Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been in a gradual uptrend.

Recently the soybean market has started to trade in more of a choppy, sideways range.

Overhead resistance up in the 15.50-15.55 level.

Chart support down around the $15 level.

March KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are in a gradual uptrend.

We have been testing trend line support, but so far that trend line has held.

Questions or Comments